It was drizzling and the cold wave came. With the cold front of the industry, it is about to enter 2016. The overall market of freshwater fishes is still in a downturn, especially raw fish. The price of this year has been running at a low level. In addition, affected by the "poisonous black fish" incident, prices continue to decline. Farmers had expected that with the coming of winter, the demand in the North would increase and the price would rise slightly. But so far, the raw fish market has not improved, but the price of fish has continued to decline. Why on earth? With these questions, our reporter investigated the situation of raw fish in Pearl River Delta.
First, let's take a look at the market survey of raw fish in the Pearl River Delta region in early November and late December: In early November, for new fish, the gun head above 1.5kg is 6.1-6.3 yuan/500g,1~1.5kg is 5.8-6 yuan/500g; For old fish, the gun head of about 2kg is 6.8-7.2 yuan/500g. Compared with the same period last year, the overall decrease is 0.5 yuan/500g yuan. In late December, for new fish, 5-5.4 yuan/500g for more than 1.5kg; For old fish, 6.3-6.4 yuan/500g for more than 2kg, the price of fish will drop once it drops.
The number of seedlings dropped by 20%-30%
Judging from the overall breeding situation this year, the number of sashimi sashimi sashimi sashimi sashimi in Pearl River Delta this year has decreased by 20%-30% compared with last year. On the one hand, the decrease in the amount of seedlings is due to the sluggish market of raw fish last year, with many breeding diseases and severe losses for some farmers; On the other hand, the amount of old fish stored in the pond last year was relatively large, affect the number of seedlings put into this year.
Although the overall seedling feeding amount has decreased, the seedling feeding density has increased. It is understood that in previous years it was 8,000~10,000 per mu, and this year the seedling density is about 11,000~12,000 per mu. "This has something to do with the mentality of farmers. Last year's low fish price affected the breeding enthusiasm of farmers. In order to reduce the cost per kilogram, people who continue to raise will increase the density of seedlings to increase benefits. However, judging from the situation this year, the seedling density next year will be greatly reduced to about 8,000 seedlings per mu." Lin Sheng, regional manager of a feed company in Foshan, told the reporter.
The success rate of seedling feeding in Pearl River Delta region is relatively high this year, but the problem of breeding diseases also causes certain losses. In addition to the Nocella disease in the early stage of breeding (it is easy to develop in the 11th morning, and tends to be stable in the 11th morning, during which there will be some loss, but the impact is not big), what is more serious is that the air flow alternation between the north and the South in October led to the reverse bottom, and the dead fish were serious. "At that time, many farmers did not take preventive measures before the weather changed suddenly, and the loss was relatively serious. The number of dead fish was about 10,000 jin." Lin Sheng said.
Production and drug residue double blow, fish price pressure
In addition to the loss of the breeding process, the sluggish market is the fatal injury. The price of fish has been running at a low level for a long time. First, the overall output is large and the amount of old fish stored in the pond is too large. Lin Sheng said: "It is estimated that the total amount of raw fish stored in the Pearl River Delta region is still about 90%, and the amount of old fish stored in the pond is roughly about 80 million Jin. Judging from Shunde and Zhongshan, the amount of old fish in the pond is very large."
In addition, the "poisonous black fish" incident at the end of August also affected the raw fish sales market to some extent. "The application of nitrofuracillin antibiotics, malachite green and other prohibited drugs in aquatic products has led to the strict problem of residual fishery drugs. Farmers dare not go out of the pond and purchasers dare not collect fish. At present, all the fish out of the pond have to go through the detection of the residue of fishery drugs, and the fish can only be out of the pond without the residue of prohibited drugs. Before entering the market, it needs to be sampled again, and the fish can only be listed without any problems. It can be said that there are many levels." Zhou Xinhui, president of Shunde sashimi Association, introduced the current situation to the reporter.
Generally speaking, when the winter is approaching, the weather starts to cool down, the demand for raw fish in the north becomes larger, and it needs to be supplied from the south, and the price will be increased. But now it seems that the hope of farmers has been lost.
"Although the North has the habit of consuming raw fish, affected by the" poisonous black fish "incident this year, some people have a shadow in their hearts and their consumption efforts have decreased. Moreover, the local inspection of local raw fish in the northern market is more strict. In the past, three carts of fish could be sold at the wholesale stall a day, but now one carts of fish may not be sold out in three days. It is roughly estimated that the daily purchase volume of raw fish in the Pearl River Delta region is only about 600,000 to 800,000 catties." A senior material enterprise person Li Yong (alias) made a simple analysis of the current market.
However, most people hold the view that the reduction of market sales caused by drug residue is only one of the problems, and the more important reason is that there are too many old fish in the pond, to some extent, the price of new fish has also been suppressed.
In order to withdraw funds, farmers were forced to sell fish at a loss.
From the analysis of breeding cost, up to now (late December), the breeding cost of new fish has exceeded 5 yuan/500g, and some breeding costs have reached 5.4~5.5 yuan/500g; the cost of old fish breeding is 7~8 yuan/500g. If the management is not good or the feed is relatively high, the comprehensive cost will exceed 8 yuan/500g. (For example, the autumn seedlings released last year (in August and May) until now, the cost of feed alone has reached about 6 yuan, if it was in May last year, since the seedling was released in June, the cost of feed alone has reached 7 yuan/500g, plus pond rent, electricity bill, etc., and the comprehensive breeding cost is 7~8 yuan/500g.)
According to the current fish price, farmers are basically losing money when they sell fish, especially the old fish, which are basically facing a loss of 1~2 yuan/500g. Even at a low price, due to the sluggish market as a whole, sales were blocked, and fish were not collected from the ponds, which led to panic selling of some farmers, preferring to lose 1~2 yuan per catty rather than go out of the ponds.
According to the reporter's investigation information, there are only three reasons:
First, the pond rent expires;
Second, distributors are short of funds, feed supply is insufficient, and farmers are called for money;
Thirdly, the storage volume is relatively large, and the farmers are not optimistic about the future prospect. Now the fish is indeed lost, but if it continues to be raised, the ratio of the stock will increase and the loss will be more. Considering these factors, the farmers finally decided to sell fish at a loss.
"Most of the time, near the end of the year, material enterprises and distributors need to withdraw funds in time due to operating pressure. Farmers have to pay the feed money they owe on credit, so it is helpless to sell at a low price." Li Yong sighed.
The market prospect is not optimistic, and there are many delisting people next year.
For this fish, many people are not optimistic about its future prospects, and even quit the raw fish breeding. For example, boss Huang, a feed distributor in Shunde, made it clear that he was not optimistic about the future raw fish market, many people are in a wait-and-see state.
"If there is still no change in the market situation before the Qingming Festival next year (during the seedling release period), the number of people who preserve their fish will probably be about half less next year. Judging from the current situation, there are still a lot of old fish in the pond next year. Even if the number of new fish seedlings is reduced, the supply of raw fish in the whole market will not be less in the first half of next year. Of course, the specific rhythm of the pond should be seen." Li Yong.
Lin Shan (alias), head of a feed area in Shunde, believes that the price of raw fish will not improve until March or April at least next year. "The trend of the whole raw fish market depends on the sales situation of raw fish this year. After all, the investment of raw fish breeding is very large. No one wants to spend hundreds of thousands of yuan on management for such a long time and finally earn thousands of yuan."
Zhou Xinhui believes that due to the influence of storage volume and drug residue time, the raw fish market will not be very clear until next May, and the market will not be able to recover until at least August to May. There are also a small number of people who are enthusiastic about the market situation in the next year. "The price from February to April in previous years is relatively low. Affected by the market situation this year, if the number of healthy fish decreases next year, it is also possible that the price of raw fish will recover next year." Lin Sheng said.
The market trend is ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand of the market. Looking at the situation of the raw fish market in the past two years, the price of fish has been in a downturn all the way, the number of raw fish farmers is increasing, the output is increasing continuously, and the market has reached saturation. Nowadays, the rate of raw fish out of the pond is low, so it becomes a difficult problem for distributors and feed factories to withdraw funds. Some small households with low breeding technology and insufficient funds may be eliminated by the market. No matter whether the raw fish market will pick up or not next year, if the situation of blindly following the trend and disorderly breeding cannot be improved, the raw fish industry will eventually fall into an indefinite vicious circle.